Jarra, E.; Ekwem, D.; Cleaveland, S.; Haydon, D. T.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease of global concern, driven by environmental conditions, vector activity, and livestock mobility. Although RVF has been reported in The Gambia, its epidemiology remains poorly understood. This study developed a compartmental model to study RVF dynamics in the cattle population of the country. The model incorporated seasonally dynamic transmission parameters reflecting transhumant movement and ecological differences between two distinct ecoclimatic regions: the Sahelian area and the Gambia river. Parameterised using serological data linked to household survey data, the model predicted endemic RVF virus (RVFV) circulation within The Gambia, and captured temporal infection trends that closely match empirical data. Weak decay rates of seropositivity were required to match predicted and observed age-seroprevalence. Results indicated sustained RVFV transmission during the dry season in the Gambia river eco-region, with a high risk of seasonal virus introductions to the Sahelian eco-region at the start of the wet season via the returning transhumant cattle. A hypothetical transhumant movement ban reduced the frequency of outbreaks in the Sahelian eco-region but disproportionately increased their magnitude, with no long-term reduction in the number of infectious cattle. Our study highlighted the role of livestock mobility in RVFV epidemiology in The Gambia and the need for targeted control strategies that do not involve bans on transhumance movements. These control measures might include, for example, targeted cattle vaccination or application of topical insecticide treatments.